A month into the 2025 Ontario forest fire season, the number of fires and area burned are below the 10-year average to this date, however it is a critical time in between snow melt and green-up when there is a greater risk for fires to start and spread quickly.
Ontario's Ministry of Natural Resources confirms there have been 26 fires in Ontario so far this year that have burned a total of 20 hectares.
In comparison, last year on this date, there had been 32 confirmed wildfires affecting 108 hectares. The 10-year average is 43 fires burning 7,760 hectares.
A map of the current wildfire activity can be found here.
A spokesperson with the ministry says much of northern Ontario is still covered by dry grass and dead vegetation from last year, which on warmer days when exposed to sun and wind, can be more susceptible to fire.
Because conditions are ideal for fire to spread at this time, people who wish to clean up their yards are encouraged to compost or use the local landfill rather than burning debris.
As for predictions about fire activity during the coming season, a statement from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources says it's difficult to take a long-term look.
"Each fire season is highly variable and is based on actual weather trends that develop throughout the fire season," the ministry said in an email. "Fire activity can change quickly within a given week, month with the changes in weather, or across the season, and can also vary significantly from the previous year's activity."
A warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada, Geoff Coulson says he can't predict the forest fire season either, but does say May is looking to be warmer and drier than normal, with the higher temperatures lingering into June.
In the longer term, a fire-weather specialist with Natural Resources Canada says climate models show a possible elevated risk of wildfire activity in western Canada this year, and maybe in parts of northern Ontario as well.
"It looks like in August we have a possibility of getting above normal fire activity out close to the Quebec border, you know, maybe around Timmins and up toward James Bay and west of that," said Richard Carr.
Carr said the northwest tends to be drier with less precipitation generally leading to a higher risk of forests fires, with global warming as a contributing factor.